jeudi 25 octobre 2018

What if we didn't need to live in clusters?


I wonder what the effect of not living in clusters / cities would have on our well being, our productivity at work and our relationships.

Imagine for instance that we invent a new way to commute rapidly from say four hours outside of a major city in less than the time it takes to snap your fingers (teleportation) or that we invent a new way to have shared work-spaces without physically being in the same place (like virtual reality).

I think virtual reality seems like the more plausible first step. You would wake up, have your breakfast and then just plug into your virtual reality headset and be "beamed" to your share office space. 

From the perspective of the office space, space, as in the amount of room you can allocate to an individual worker or a group of worker would no longer have any real meaning. You would make a scarce (and thus expensive) resource widely available. 

From the perspective of the worker, commute time and the associated ills would no longer be a concern.

Now the real question is, if these barriers exploded, would we still decide to live outside of clusters? 

I think there are several things we can observe:

  1. This would no longer be a constraint, so while some individuals, especially those looking to foster physical relationship with unknowns will probably still elect to live in clusters, those that have already found the most meaning full relationship in their lives (wife/husband + kids) or prefer to live surrounded by "nature" (whatever is left of it at least after we "colonize" these new areas) would no longer be constrained by the necessity to live close to your job.
  2. From an employer perspective, this would create the possibility to search for skills beyond borders whether local or national, as anyone could immediately connect to the space. You would actually question the validity of national borders and national employment laws if such a technology existed.
  3. By making the space required for work not scarce, we would make the space available for "living" plentiful as well.
  4. I'm not sure this would have an immediate impact on productivity. Rather, we would see progress over time with probably less sick leave and less general stress resulting from the commute. Quantifying those effects is probably a bit hard.

I'm especially interested in what would make people stay in cities / clusters if you were able to work virtually from anywhere. Is it as simple as the necessity to have physical interactions with other individuals, or would we rapidly evolve to having those relationships in a similar virtual format. I think what we are seeing with current young individuals shows that the evolution can be quite sudden once the technology is available. Or is there something more else that we seek when we live in clusters such as security, availability of experiences, general economies of scale?

The question of the economies of scale to living in clusters is quite interesting I think. Does it actually cost more or less to live in clusters? I would tend to think you actually save energy overtime but expend more initially. If we were to live far away from clusters then we would necessarily have decentralized infrastructures, from energy distribution to medical care.

In essence, I think the problem with not living in clusters is that we don't currently have the technology to enable us to have a similar lifestyle outside of a cluster at a similar cost. This is for the moment only available to individuals with enough wealth to create this infrastructure for themselves, or individuals willing to trade "down" their way of life both in terms of physical and psychological comfort. 

But again, these seem like easily resolvable "problems" if you take a long enough perspective on technological improvements.


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